A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
